In the wake of the Trump tariffs, there is a lot of concern about the impact on the UK.
Away from grand ideas about trade deficits and mercantilism are the worries over how many people could lose their jobs.
Analysts from Deutsche Bank have come up with one scenario that suggests job losses could rise by 56,000.
This kind of projection is always more illustration than prophecy, but it does give an idea of just how big the impact could be.
Deutsche says the simulations they have run show jobless rates raising by 0.4 percentage points in the UK.
By applying a method to account for people switching to similar jobs and other variables, the bank gets the 56,000 figure – more like 0.15 percentage points – of roles that will vanish.
While this sounds bad, it puts the UK at the lower end of European countries hit.
In this simulation, the EU as a whole could see unemployment rise by 420,000, according to the projections.
Sanjay Raja, the chief UK Economist at Deutsche Bank, told Sky News: “Trump tariffs will be unambiguously negative for growth prospects in the UK.”
He said the industries that will most likely be affected will be “food, beverages, tobacco, rubber/plastics, metals, machinery, and transport, to name a few”.
The services industry will likely be impacted “indirectly”, with “professional services and admin and support services seeing the biggest hits”.